USD/JPY
Current Quote:
154.04
USD/JPY - BEARISH
Bottom line
WAIT — the bounce died on CPI (154.04); the 235-pip intervention floor still blocks the book
Setup conviction (R/R)
0/10 · Moderate
Macro drivers
BoJ 1.00% hawkish¥ new lows · BoJ 17-18Fed–BoJ gap
Basis: ECB/Frankfurter reference rates · SMA50/200, sigma20 & Donchian computed · 540 daily sessions (01/08/2024–11/09/2026).
1. Fundamental & Macro Flow
USD/JPY closed at 154.04 in the 11/09/2026 session (ECB/Frankfurter reference rate; the logged-in MT5 terminal still returns no FX data), down -0.09% — Thursday's bounce (+0.59%, the first up close in five sessions) did not survive the hot US CPI (+0.4% m/m; 3.4% y/y), which kept the Fed hike in play (~60% odds, FOMC Sep 15-16) against a BoJ now ~80% priced for +25 bp (to 1.25%) on Sep 17-18. The read stays BEAR (confirmed breakdown since the Sep 7 edition; the 10/20-day low still sits at 153.27) and the geometry stays blocked: with sigma20 at 94 pips the 2.5-sigma20 intervention floor is worth 235 pips — a short from 154.04 would need a target ~470 pips lower (149.34), under the 9-month low (152.63), where only the 150.00 round remains. The MoF stays on alert since the July intervention; 141 pips above a 9-month low, intervention risk stays maximal. Indicators computed from the ECB/Frankfurter daily series (540 sessions, 01/08/2024 to 11/09/2026).
2. Technical Architecture
Main Trend
Close under the 200-day SMA (158.36) and under the 50-day (159.79), with the 50-day still above the 200-day — the confirmed break of the 10/20-day lows keeps the resolution bearish: a bear read with the bounce capped under 154.18, 141 pips above the 9-month low (152.63).
Critical Liquidity Zones
Nearest Macro Support:
152.63 (9-month low), with the 152.50 round beneath — 153.27 (the 10/20-day low) is the first defense.
152.63 (mínima de 9 meses), com o redondo 152.50 abaixo — 153.27 (mínima de 10/20 pregões) é a primeira defesa.
Nearest Macro Resistance:
154.75 (Monday's close) / 154.18 (Thursday's close), with the 78.6% Fib / round (155.04-155.00) and the broken Sep 3 low (156.01) above.
154.75 (fechamento de segunda) / 154.18 (fechamento de quinta), com a Fib 78,6% / redondo (155.04-155.00) e a mínima quebrada de 03/09 (156.01) acima.
Price Action Behavior
No entry — CPI killed the bounce and the chase stays rejected: with sigma20 = 94 pips, the intervention floor (2.5-sigma20 = 235 pips) demands a target at ~149.35 and the only anchor on the way is the 150.00 round (tier three). Selling 141 pips above the 9-month low with the MoF on alert is handing the stop to the intervenor. Re-arm: sigma20 compression, a base over 152.63/152.50, or a structured pullback to 155.04-156.01. The FOMC Sep 15-16 and BoJ Sep 17-18 are the arbiters.
3. Strategic Verdict & Trade Setup
TICKET · USD/JPY · 11·09·26
WAIT FOR ANOTHER TRIGGER
R : R
N/A
Entry Trigger
None — the intervention floor (2.5-sigma20 = 235 pips) rejects a short 141 pips above the 9-month low and a long has no structure under the averages. Watch the reaction at 152.63 and sigma20 compression; the FOMC (Sep 15-16) and BoJ (Sep 17-18) decide the next chapter.
Stop Loss (Invalidation)
N/A (no trade).
Take Profit (Target)
N/A (no trade).
Final Justification
Two hawks and one dead bounce: the hot CPI handed the wind back to the dollar, the BoJ at ~80% for +25 bp holds the yen, and the pair closes the week compressed between the 9-month low and a capped bounce. The intervention floor (235 pips) does not negotiate: aiming ~470 pips lower lands in structureless territory — only the 150.00 round. With the FOMC and the BoJ in the same week, the event decides; the report does not pay the premium of standing in front of the MoF.