GBP/USD
Current Quote:
1.3308
GBP/USD - BEARISH
1. Fundamental & Macro Flow
GBP/USD trades at 1.3308 on 25/07/2026, extending the prior session's modest decline, with the dollar supported by rising Fed hike bets (45%-55% for the July 28-29 meeting) and safe-haven flows tied to the US-Iran war. The BoE decides rates on July 30 (Super Thursday, with a full Monetary Policy Report); markets expect a hold at 3.75%, but Chief Economist Huw Pill reiterated that rates 'will need to rise,' and markets are already pricing two hikes by March 2027 as rising oil pressures inflation.
2. Technical Architecture
Main Trend
The pair extends the bearish reversal from the break of the 1.3391 range floor, holding under selling pressure below that level.
Critical Liquidity Zones
Nearest Macro Support:
1.3260 (nearest macro support), with 1.3200 as secondary support.
1,3260 (suporte macro mais próximo), com 1,3200 como suporte secundário.
Nearest Macro Resistance:
1.3391 (former range floor, broken, now resistance), with 1.3460 as secondary resistance.
1,3391 (piso da faixa anterior, rompido, agora resistência), com 1,3460 como resistência secundária.
Price Action Behavior
A bearish rejection at the 1.3370-1.3391 zone would confirm trend continuation, opening the way toward 1.3260.
3. Strategic Verdict & Trade Setup
SELL (SHORT) ON PULLBACK
Risk/Reward Ratio
1:2.40
Entry Trigger
Bearish rejection (pin bar / bearish engulfing) at the 1.3370-1.3391 zone, with a daily close holding below 1.3360.
Stop Loss (Invalidation)
1.3430 (Above the rejection zone / broken resistance).
Take Profit (Target)
1.3260 (Nearest macro support).
Final Justification
Broad dollar strength, driven by rising Fed hike bets and war-related safe-haven flows, outweighs the expected BoE hold on July 30. The rejection at 1.3370-1.3391 offers a short entry with a protected stop and 1:2.40 R/R toward 1.3260.