AUD/USD
Current Quote:
0.6985
AUD/USD - NEUTRAL
1. Fundamental & Macro Flow
AUD/USD trades at 0.6985 on 25/07/2026, within the 0.6960-0.7010 range, after Australia's June jobs report (released July 23) beat sharply — 76,300 jobs added versus 15,000 expected, with the unemployment rate steady at 4.4% and participation rising to 67.0%. The data modestly lifts RBA hike odds for the August 11 meeting, though Q2 CPI, due July 29, should be the decisive factor. On the dollar side, Fed hike odds for the July 28-29 meeting have risen to the 45%-55% range, capping AUD's advance.
2. Technical Architecture
Main Trend
The pair remains rangebound between the 0.6960 support and the 0.7010 resistance, with no clear directional resolution ahead of next week's Australian CPI.
Critical Liquidity Zones
Nearest Macro Support:
0.6960 (recent range floor).
0,6960 (piso da faixa recente).
Nearest Macro Resistance:
0.7010 (recent range top, tested this session).
0,7010 (topo da faixa recente, testado nesta sessão).
Price Action Behavior
No high-probability price-action signal has formed at either boundary of the 0.6960-0.7010 range; the proximity of Australia's Q2 CPI (July 29) argues for caution before any directional trade.
3. Strategic Verdict & Trade Setup
WAIT FOR ANOTHER TRIGGER
Risk/Reward Ratio
N/A
Entry Trigger
Await a confirmed daily close below 0.6960 or above 0.7010 before any trade.
Stop Loss (Invalidation)
N/A — no trade until directional confirmation.
Take Profit (Target)
N/A — no trade until directional confirmation.
Final Justification
The strong Australian jobs data modestly lifts RBA hike odds, but is offset by broad dollar strength and rising Fed hike bets. Q2 CPI on July 29 should set the direction — the minimum 1:2 gate requires a confirmed direction first.