AUD/USD
Current Quote:
0.7173
AUD/USD - BULLISH
Bottom line
BUY — the retest is underway (0.7173, two down sessions); buy the zone 0.7141-0.7162, target 0.7257 (1:2.27)
Setup conviction (R/R)
7/10 · High
Macro drivers
RBA 4.35%WTI $83D10/D20 breakout
Basis: ECB/Frankfurter reference rates · SMA50/200, sigma20 & Donchian computed · 540 daily sessions (01/08/2024–11/09/2026).
1. Fundamental & Macro Flow
AUD/USD closed at 0.7173 in the 11/09/2026 session (ECB/Frankfurter reference rate; the logged-in MT5 terminal still returns no FX data), down -0.17% — a second straight down session (-0.72% from the 0.7225 top), with the hot US CPI (+0.4% m/m; 3.4% y/y) knocking the commodity bloc off its 20-day high. The retest the ticket was waiting for is underway: the pullback has already handed back the broken level (0.7195-0.7204) and the buying zone 0.7141-0.7162 sits 11-32 pips below. The alignment stays fully bullish (50-day 0.7066 > 200-day 0.6991; price above both) and the engine is the same: the RBA differential (4.35%, next meeting Sep 29; banks project 4.60% by November), Australian CPI at 3.5% and WTI ~$83. The ticket stays on the book, with the CPI caveat swapped for the FOMC (Sep 15-16) window. Indicators computed from the ECB/Frankfurter daily series (540 sessions, 01/08/2024 to 11/09/2026).
2. Technical Architecture
Main Trend
Above the 50-day (0.7066) and 200-day (0.6991) SMAs — full bull alignment; the two-session pullback handed back the broken level (0.7195) and seeks the 0.7141-0.7162 retest zone, with the 9-month high (0.7257) as the structural cap.
Critical Liquidity Zones
Nearest Macro Support:
0.7141 (10-day low), with the 23.6% Fib (0.7102), the 20-day low (0.7076) and the 50-day SMA (0.7066) beneath.
0.7141 (mínima de 10 pregões), com a Fib 23,6% (0.7102), a mínima de 20 pregões (0.7076) e a SMA50 (0.7066) abaixo.
Nearest Macro Resistance:
0.7225 (10/20-day high), with the broken level (0.7195-0.7204) halfway and the 9-month high (0.7257) above.
0.7225 (máxima de 10/20 pregões), com o nível rompido (0.7195-0.7204) no meio do caminho e a máxima de 9 meses (0.7257) acima.
Price Action Behavior
Post-breakout retest long setup (carried): wait for a daily close inside the 0.7141-0.7162 zone (D10 low / 0.7150 round) followed by a higher close above the midpoint (0.7152) — entry reference 0.7155, stop 0.7110 (under the breakout base; 45 pips >= the ~42-pip 1.5-sigma20 floor), target 0.7257 (9-month high). A close under 0.7141 cancels the setup; a trigger inside the FOMC (Sep 15-16) 24h window: reassess after the event.
3. Strategic Verdict & Trade Setup
TICKET · AUD/USD · 11·09·26
BUY (LONG) ON PULLBACK
R : R
1:2.27
Entry Trigger
Daily close inside the 0.7141-0.7162 zone (D10 low / 0.7150 round) followed by a close above the previous close and the 0.7152 midpoint — entry reference 0.7155. Valid through the Sep 14 close; inside the FOMC (Sep 15-16) 24h window, reassess after the event.
Stop Loss (Invalidation)
0.7110 (under the 10-day low 0.7141, the breakout base; 45 pips >= the ~42-pip 1.5-sigma20 floor) · suggested risk ≤ 1% per trade.
Take Profit (Target)
0.7257 (9-month high), with the broken level (0.7195-0.7204) turning into resistance on the way.
Final Justification
The retest stopped being a thesis and became price: two down sessions handed back the broken level and point to the 0.7141-0.7162 zone — the disciplined entry the book has awaited since Sep 4. Buying the zone with the stop under it pays 1:2.27 (102 pips against 45) with the RBA differential behind; chasing from here still pays under 1:1. The caveat migrates from CPI to the FOMC (Sep 15-16): the ticket runs through the Sep 14 close. The edge still belongs to whoever waits.