EUR/USD
Current Quote:
1.1386
EUR/USD - BEARISH
1. Fundamental & Macro Flow
EUR/USD trades at 1.1386 on 25/07/2026, correcting higher after the prior session's bearish breakdown and close, as the dollar consolidates recent gains. Fed hike odds for the July 28-29 meeting have risen to the 45%-55% range (CME FedWatch), after Initial Jobless Claims fell to 187K in the week ended July 18 — the lowest since 1969 — reinforcing the higher-for-longer narrative. The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.25% on July 23, with Lagarde sticking to a 'meeting-by-meeting' stance and giving no signal on the next move. The US-Iran war remains in focus, with WTI near $90-92 and the VIX still elevated.
2. Technical Architecture
Main Trend
The pair is correcting higher within a bearish structure, retesting the 1.1380-1.1400 zone that acted as support before the prior session's breakdown and now serves as short-term resistance.
Critical Liquidity Zones
Nearest Macro Support:
1.1325 (immediate macro support, three-week low), with 1.1200 as the deeper psychological support.
1,1325 (suporte macro imediato, mínima de três semanas), com 1,1200 como suporte psicológico mais profundo.
Nearest Macro Resistance:
1.1400-1.1420 (short-term resistance zone, former broken support), with 1.1460 as secondary resistance.
1,1400-1,1420 (zona de resistência de curto prazo, antigo suporte rompido), com 1,1460 como resistência secundária.
Price Action Behavior
A bearish rejection (pin bar / bearish engulfing) at the 1.1400-1.1420 zone, with a daily close resuming below 1.1380, would reopen the way toward 1.1325.
3. Strategic Verdict & Trade Setup
SELL (SHORT) ON PULLBACK
Risk/Reward Ratio
1:2.13
Entry Trigger
Bearish rejection at the 1.1400-1.1420 zone, with a daily close holding below 1.1380.
Stop Loss (Invalidation)
1.1450 (Above the rejection zone / correction high).
Take Profit (Target)
1.1325 (Nearest macro support).
Final Justification
The correction higher occurs within a still-valid bearish structure, with rising Fed hike bets and the ECB's neutral stance keeping the dollar favored. A rejection at the 1.1400-1.1420 zone offers a short entry with a protected stop and 1:2.13 R/R toward 1.1325.