EUR/USD
Current Quote:
1.1592
EUR/USD - BEARISH
Bottom line
SELL — failed reclaim: two closes back under the SMA200 despite the ECB’s 25-bp hike; short the pullback into 1.1631-1.1657, target the 50-day SMA (1:2.51)
Setup conviction (R/R)
8/10 · High
Macro drivers
Fed hike ~60%CPI 3.4%ECB hiked to 2.50%
Basis: ECB/Frankfurter reference rates · SMA50/200, sigma20 & Donchian computed · 540 daily sessions (01/08/2024–11/09/2026).
1. Fundamental & Macro Flow
EUR/USD closed at 1.1592 in the 11/09/2026 session (ECB/Frankfurter reference rate; the logged-in MT5 terminal still returns no FX data), down -0.21% — a second straight down close after the failed SMA200 reclaim: the ECB hiked 25 bp on Sep 10 (deposit to 2.50%, the second hike since the energy shock) and the euro fell anyway, sold on the fact against a dollar turbocharged by August CPI (+0.4% m/m; 3.4% y/y; core 2.4% y/y, cooling) that kept the Fed hike in play (~60% odds, FOMC Sep 15-16). With the close back under the 200-day SMA (1.1631) and the 50-day (1.1527) still below it, the alignment turns fully bearish again — and the 1.1631-1.1657 selling zone (SMA200 + 50% Fib), disarmed on Wednesday by the reclaim, returns to the map. The close stopped 14 pips above the 10-day low (1.1578), with the 61.8% Fib (1.1582) in the way. Indicators (SMA 50/200, sigma20, Donchian and Fibonacci) computed from the ECB/Frankfurter daily series (540 sessions, 01/08/2024 to 11/09/2026).
2. Technical Architecture
Main Trend
Close under the 200-day SMA (1.1631) with the 50-day (1.1527) below — bear alignment restored: the Sep 9 reclaim lasted one session and US CPI handed the regime back; the 10-day low (1.1578) and the 61.8% Fib (1.1582) are the immediate floors.
Critical Liquidity Zones
Nearest Macro Support:
1.1578 (10-day low), with the 61.8% Fib (1.1582), the 20-day low (1.1576), the 50-day SMA (1.1527) and the 1.1500 round beneath.
1.1578 (mínima de 10 pregões), com a Fib 61,8% (1.1582), a mínima de 20 pregões (1.1576), a SMA50 (1.1527) e o redondo 1.1500 abaixo.
Nearest Macro Resistance:
1.1631 (SMA200), with the 50% Fib (1.1657) and the 20-day high (1.1699) above.
1.1631 (SMA200), com a Fib 50% (1.1657) e a máxima de 20 pregões (1.1699) acima.
Price Action Behavior
Short-the-pullback setup into the 1.1631-1.1657 zone (SMA200 + 50% Fib): wait for a daily close inside the zone followed by a close below the previous close and the midpoint (1.1644) — entry reference 1.1640, stop 1.1685 (over the zone and the Sep 9 high; 45 pips >= the ~45-pip 1.5-sigma20 floor), target 1.1527 (50-day SMA), crossing the 1.1576-1.1582 cluster. A close under 1.1578 without the pullback would re-map the book one shelf lower.
3. Strategic Verdict & Trade Setup
TICKET · EUR/USD · 11·09·26
SELL (SHORT) ON PULLBACK
R : R
1:2.51
Entry Trigger
Daily close inside the 1.1631-1.1657 zone (SMA200 + 50% Fib) followed by a close below the previous close and the 1.1644 midpoint — entry reference 1.1640. Valid through the Sep 14 close; inside the FOMC (Sep 15-16) 24h window, reassess after the event.
Stop Loss (Invalidation)
1.1685 (over the 1.1631-1.1657 zone and the Sep 9 high; 45 pips >= the ~45-pip 1.5-sigma20 floor) · suggested risk ≤ 1% per trade.
Take Profit (Target)
1.1527 (50-day SMA), with the 1.1576-1.1582 cluster on the way.
Final Justification
The reclaim lasted one session: the ECB delivered the hike and the euro fell — when price ignores the hawkish fact, the fact that matters is the flow. The rule re-aligns the bias bearish (close under the SMA200 with the 50-day below) and puts the short back at the same old zone, now with CPI behind us: selling the 1.1631-1.1657 pullback with a structural stop over the zone pays 1:2.51 (113 pips against 45) down to the 50-day SMA. The Sep 15-16 FOMC is the only open window — the ticket runs through the Sep 14 close.