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Performance Track Record
Every directional ticket published in the daily report since 17/08/2026, tracked after the fact and resolved mechanically on daily closes. Wins, losses, expiries and revoked setups all stay on the page — this ledger exists so you can judge the methodology on evidence, not on claims. Last update: 19/09/2026.
Resolution rules. Triggers and resolutions are close-based (ECB/Frankfurter reference rates). A daily close at/beyond the target closes the ticket at that level; a close at/beyond the stop closes it at −1R; ten sessions after entry with neither level crossed expire the ticket at the 10th-session close (realized R = (exit − entry)/(entry − stop) for longs, mirrored for shorts). A setup withdrawn by a later report before its trigger fired is marked revoked and counts as no trade. One watching ticket per pair at a time.
1
Watching
1
Open
2
Resolved
6
Revoked
-0.12
Net realized (R)
Resolved detail: 0 target · 0 stop · 2 expired · average -0.06R per resolved ticket. Small sample so far — the ledger grows one report at a time. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Watching — awaiting trigger
| Pair | Published | Direction / setup | Entry | Stop | Target | Planned R/R | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Par | Publicado | Direção / setup | Entrada | Stop | Alvo | R/R planejado | Status | Resultado |
| EUR/USD | 19/09/2026 | ▼ short / breakout | 1.1459 | 1.15 | 1.135 | 1:2.66 | Watching for trigger | — |
Desk notes
- EUR/USD (19/09/2026): continuation breakdown: the 18/09 close (1.1460, -0.18%) is a fresh 10/20-day low under the handed-back 78.6% Fib (1.1476); stop 41 pips over the 1.1500 round + the handed-back Fib (>= the ~37-pip 1.5-sigma20 floor); target 1.1350 just above the 9-month low (1.1340), path crossing only the 1.1400 round; additive to the open runner from the 14/09 ticket (entered at the 15/09 close 1.1539, stop 1.1600, target 1.1440)
Open — triggered, still running
| Pair | Published | Direction / setup | Entry | Stop | Target | Planned R/R | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Par | Publicado | Direção / setup | Entrada | Stop | Alvo | R/R planejado | Status | Resultado |
| EUR/USD | 14/09/2026 | ▼ short / breakout | 1.15389 | 1.16 | 1.144 | 1:2.2 | Open (triggered 15/09/2026) | — |
Desk notes
- EUR/USD (14/09/2026): triggered at the 15/09 close (1.15389, under the 10-day low 1.1551) inside the FOMC window per the ticket's own clause; the post-event reassessment confirmed it — the Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% (16/09) and the 16/09 close (1.15370) held under the entry; running +1.29R at the 18/09 close (1.14600) toward 1.1440, the 1.1600 stop never threatened (10-session expiry: 29/09)
Closed — resolved or revoked
| Pair | Published | Direction / setup | Entry | Stop | Target | Planned R/R | Status | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Par | Publicado | Direção / setup | Entrada | Stop | Alvo | R/R planejado | Status | Resultado |
| GBP/JPY | 14/08/2026 | ▲ long / breakout | 215.9 | 213.9 | 219 | 1:2.19 | Expired (10 sessions) (31/08/2026) | +0.17R |
| GBP/USD | 17/08/2026 | ▲ long / breakout | 1.3559 | 1.349 | 1.38 | 1:3.49 | Expired (10 sessions) (31/08/2026) | -0.29R |
| EUR/USD | 01/09/2026 | ▼ short / pullback | 1.162 | 1.1665 | 1.1515 | 1:2.33 | Revoked before trigger (02/09/2026) | — |
| GBP/JPY | 02/09/2026 | ▲ long / pullback | 215.6 | 213.75 | 219.5 | 1:2.11 | Revoked before trigger (04/09/2026) | — |
| EUR/USD | 07/09/2026 | ▼ short / pullback | 1.164 | 1.1685 | 1.1534 | 1:2.36 | Revoked before trigger (09/09/2026) | — |
| GBP/USD | 07/09/2026 | ▲ long / pullback | 1.3447 | 1.339 | 1.3566 | 1:2.09 | Revoked before trigger (09/09/2026) | — |
| EUR/USD | 11/09/2026 | ▼ short / pullback | 1.164 | 1.1685 | 1.1527 | 1:2.51 | Revoked before trigger (14/09/2026) | — |
| AUD/USD | 11/09/2026 | ▲ long / pullback | 0.7155 | 0.711 | 0.7257 | 1:2.27 | Revoked before trigger (14/09/2026) | — |
Desk notes
- GBP/JPY (14/08/2026): legacy 14/08 ticket: expired on time at the 10th session (31/08 close 216.24, +34 pips; neither 219.00 nor 213.90 close-crossed)
- GBP/USD (17/08/2026): 17/08 ticket (eToro virtual fill 1.35258): expired on time at the 10th session (31/08 close 1.3539; neither 1.3800 nor 1.3490 close-crossed)
- EUR/USD (01/09/2026): revoked in the 02/09 MT5-basis edition: the 50% Fib re-priced 1.1657 -> 1.1698, so stop 1.1665 lost its structural cover; protected R/R ~1:1.4 fails the 1:2 gate
- GBP/JPY (02/09/2026): revoked in the 04/09 edition: the 03/09 yen surge (BoJ hike bets + intervention talk) closed 210.57 straight through the 215.15-216.00 zone; on the ECB basis sigma20 = 121 pips puts the 2.5-sigma20 intervention floor at 302 pips — no structural geometry pays 1:2
- EUR/USD (07/09/2026): revoked in the 09/09 edition: validity expired at the 08/09 close with the zone never printing (08/09 close 1.1614); the 09/09 close (1.1652, +0.33%) then reclaimed the SMA200 — the six-session bear regime ended and the read flips neutral inside the ECB (10/09) / US CPI (~10/09) windows
- GBP/USD (07/09/2026): revoked in the 09/09 edition: with the averages drifted up (SMA200 1.3444 / SMA50 1.3467), the re-priced zone's midpoint (1.3455) leaves the nearest structural targets at 1:1.71 (Fib 38.2% 1.3566) and 1:1.97 (10-day high 1.3583) — under the 1:2 gate; reassess after US CPI (~10/09) and BoE (17/09)
- EUR/USD (11/09/2026): revoked in the 14/09 edition: validity expired at the 14/09 close with the zone never printing — the close (1.1551, -0.35%) broke straight through the 10-day low (1.1578) instead; re-mapped one shelf lower as a breakout short (<1.1551)
- AUD/USD (11/09/2026): revoked in the 14/09 edition: the kill condition printed — the 14/09 close (0.7130, -0.60%) broke the 0.7141 zone floor; three down sessions (-1.31% from 0.7225) turned the retest into a local breakdown and the re-priced shelf (0.7076-0.7102) pays under 1:2 with the broken zone overhead — reassess after the FOMC (15-16/09)
Desk notes are reproduced in their original wording (English). The methodology behind every ticket is documented in Our Methodology; the risk rules in Risk Management.